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Dell’Oro forecasts a 2% decline in global telecom capex in 2026, followed by modest growth at a CAGR of around 1% through 2030
In sum – what to know:
Capex set to decline – Global telecom capex is expected to fall 2% in 2026, reflecting a more cautious near-term investment environment.
Networks meet current demand – Existing infrastructure is sufficient for current traffic levels, reducing the urgency for new large-scale spending.
Efficiency before next cycle – Capital intensity is declining, but investment is expected to rise again toward 2030 with the transition to 6G.
Global telecom capital expenditure is expected to decline in 2026 as operators adopt a more cautious investment approach, even as long-term demand linked to artificial intelligence (AI) continues to build, according to new data from Dell’Oro Group.
The firm estimates that telecom capex remained broadly flat in 2025 in nominal U.S. dollar terms across approximately 50 service providers, representing around 80% of global spending. This stability came despite a 4% year-on-year increase in telecom equipment revenues, supported in part by cloud providers, which Dell’Oro estimates accounted for roughly half of that growth.
The relationship between capex and equipment spending remained relatively balanced across key segments, including broadband access, optical transport, mobile core, radio access networks (RAN), and service provider routing and switching.
However, this equilibrium is expected to shift slightly in the near term. Dell’Oro forecasts a 2% decline in global telecom capex in 2026, followed by modest growth at a compound annual rate of around 1% through 2030. Over the same period, carrier revenues are projected to increase by roughly 2% annually, gradually improving capital efficiency metrics.
“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,” said Stefan Pongratz, vice president at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex.”
Additional comments shared by Pongratz with RCR Wireless News provide further context for this cautious outlook. “The near-term caution is driven by demand – the network is in a good state from a coverage and capacity perspective to manage existing needs,” he said. This suggests that, for many operators, current infrastructure is sufficient to support traffic levels without immediate large-scale investment.
Dell’Oro projects that the capex-to-revenue ratio will approach 14% by 2029, while wireless capital intensity is expected to fall to around 11% over the same period—down significantly from peak levels seen during the height of 5G deployment cycles.
“We expect operators to continue improving their capital intensity ratios over the next four years and to start ticking back up in 2030, when 6G commences,” Pongratz told RCR Wireless News.
The findings point to a transitional phase for the telecom industry. While AI-driven applications and long-term network evolution continue to support positive sentiment, operators are prioritizing efficiency and returns in the near term.